7 Causes of Political Instability

A lack of stability in a country’s political system can have disastrous consequences. Instability may lead to civil war, economic instability and foreign influence. Frequent changes in leadership cause property rights to be insecure, leading to appropriation, hostile take-overs and contract repudiation.

A clear understanding of the causes of political instability is essential for serious state leaderships. Existing models of instability reveal that there are a variety of potential underlying causes.

1. Economic Uncertainty

The occurrence of political instability largely depends on the state’s economic situation and how that is perceived by its citizens. Economic uncertainty can arise from a number of sources such as changes in direct and indirect tax rates, changing monetary policy and regulatory policies. Uncertainty may also result from natural disasters and other events that disrupt businesses.

High levels of uncertainty can cause households to become more cautious, especially with consumption. For example, the probability of household spending on cars and home renovations is lower when uncertainty rises by about 1.2 to 1.5 percentage points. This is because consumers are more worried about their own economic prospects, which in turn leads to them saving more and lining up credit for rainy days.

Uncertainty can also reduce businesses’ ability to invest in new production equipment and hire employees. Many businesses report that they are hesitant to make major investments when there is a lot of political uncertainty. Furthermore, a high turnover rate in governments can lead to insecure property rights for investors because of appropriation, hostile take-overs and contract repudiation. This has reduced investment in many countries, particularly lower income nations.

2. Natural Disasters

There are a number of different definitions of political instability, and indices that measure it. Some of these are developed for academic purposes, while others focus on specific types of political violence. For example, the POLITY data set includes indices that measure assassinations and demonstrations. These indices are similar to the objective indices of political violence in the World Bank governance data sets.

When a natural disaster hits, it can degrade the availability of water, food, and medicine, as well as displace populations. The disruption can create a fertile breeding ground for conflict and even trigger a civil war, such as the one that followed Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

The impact of natural disasters on a country’s political stability depends on the characteristics of the government in place at the time of the disaster. Countries with higher bureaucratic quality, democratic accountability, and government stability are at lower risk of a political crisis following a natural disaster. This is a result of their ability to provide effective relief to affected populations. In addition, the lack of a stable political environment can hinder economic growth. This can lead to poverty and inequality, which in turn can contribute to political instability.

3. Political Change

Politics is about power, and when a government loses power, it can lead to political instability. This usually happens when a popular movement threatens the political structure in place or if the country is in crisis. The Paris Commune in 1871, the Russian revolutions of 1905 and 1917 and Hitler’s overthrow of the Weimar Constitution in Germany all started with popular movements that threatened the established order. It is also common for countries to go through major political change after a war or when a national military disaster occurs.

Often, the problem is that a political system fails to create a sense of legitimacy among its citizens or to establish a fundamental agreement about appropriate forms of political behaviour. It also suffers when it lacks open channels of communication with those making demands and when institutional structures fail to respond to them.

Political instability is particularly damaging for the economy because investment slows down. Economic opportunities become contingent on the relationship to those in power and property rights are insecure. Instability also tends to breed cronyism as new governments change policies and rescind contracts. In addition, foreign involvement in domestic political change can add to the risk of collapse and stifle growth.

4. Foreign Intervention

Foreign intervention can lead to political instability in many ways. First, it can upset the balance of power between the country’s key ethnic and religious groups. In MENA countries that are highly fragmented, it can lead to revolutions or violent opposition, particularly if the forces involved have no experience with political compromise and elections, no pattern of effective governance combined with economic progress and social evolution, and no clear basis for a constitution and a system of law and order.

Moreover, it can disrupt the natural checks and balances that lead to stability. Coercive monopoly government power can create a breeding ground for cronyism and violate the social norms of democracy. It can also provoke unrest when its institutions overstep their boundaries, for example, when the executive interferes with the legislature or the judiciary, and when a ruling party tries to suppress opposition political parties.

Ultimately, it’s difficult to determine what causes political instability. But the Task Force’s work shows that a combination of factors is likely to be at play. Until they’re addressed, it will be challenging to achieve sustainable peace and security. In the meantime, rapid and inclusive economic growth is crucial to reducing instability.

5. Inequality

A growing divide between those who have access to the resources and opportunities of modern life and those who do not is one of the greatest causes of political instability. This can be seen in everything from a lack of affordable healthcare to a growing gap in social protection and the ability to access quality jobs. It is also reflected in laws that limit or make voting impossible for many people, such as those that only allow voting in person on election day or require photo ID. These laws are often justified as a means to mitigate voter fraud but end up excluding people who can’t afford to get off work or transport themselves to vote.

Inequality is a global phenomenon and a range of factors contribute to it. These include economic trends like technological advancement and globalization, which create a skill premium and hollow out middle-class jobs, and domestic policies like tax and spending programs, education policies, the distribution of land and property rights, and investment and trade policy.

However, some countries are more vulnerable to inequality than others. A study by the Task Force found that weak democracies with electoral systems that encourage winner-take-all competition between parochial factions, and that place few checks on executive authority, were 30 times more likely to experience political instability than democratic countries with robust institutions.

6. Population Growth

A growing population leads to strained political institutions and increases pressure on services. It is also a major cause of armed conflict, especially in countries with deep ethnic and religious divisions. A recent study found that rapid population growth can have a significant impact on a country’s stability. The study also found that gender discrimination, poverty, and unemployment can increase the risk of political instability.

One of the causes of instability is that existing voting blocs can suddenly shift their alliances due to economic changes. For example, blue-collar voters who were once Democrats may now be more likely to vote Republican. This can destabilize the political landscape and lead to a breakdown of coalitions.

A common concern is that a rapidly growing population will lead to a lack of space for agriculture and other natural resources. However, this can be mitigated by the use of modern technologies and land management. Also, a large percentage of the world’s population lives in urban areas, which can accommodate more people than rural areas. Moreover, the use of modern technology can allow for the cultivation of more crops and food sources, thus alleviating some of the strain on local agriculture.

7. Climate Change

The effects of climate change are likely to exacerbate the risks of political instability. In Africa, for example, severe droughts and flooding decrease agricultural productivity, increase food prices, and create opportunities for exploitation by non-State armed actors. Land degradation and competition over water resources also exacerbate the risk of conflict and violence.

In addition, there is growing scientific evidence that climate change increases the frequency of collective violence. These trends are partly driven by the increasing threat from a warming world to human life, but they may also be fuelled by the loss of land and income sources for communities who have no access to traditional livelihoods or have a limited capacity to adapt.

In conclusion, the Task Force’s global model showed that political institutions are the single most important factor in determining vulnerability to political instability. However, the model also shows that other factors such as high infant mortality (a proxy for levels of material well-being), official discrimination, and conflicts in neighboring countries increase the risk of political instability. The Task Force also developed a regional model for sub-Saharan Africa, which showed that although political institutions remain the most influential risk factor, other factors such as high infant mortality, official discrimination, and low trade openness increase the likelihood of instability in the region.